Welsh Labour faces a tough Assembly election

Darren Williams
Secretary, Welsh Labour Grassroots

THE EMBATTLED MINORITY LABOUR ADMINISTRATION IN CARDIFF BAY WILL FACE THE ELECTORATE NEXT MAY, AS THE PEOPLE OF WALES ELECT A NATIONAL ASSEMBLY FOR THE THIRD TIME SINCE 1999.

Welsh Labour is hoping to win its first clear majority but the electoral arithmetic is unpromising. A defeat would, however, be a major setback for the Left because Rhodri Morgan’s Assembly administration has consciously avoided Blairite policies and pursued a more progressive agenda than the Westminster government.

In 1999, Welsh Labour – under Blair’s chosen leader, Alun Michael - lost significant ground to Plaid Cymru and ended up three seats short of a majority. After eighteen months of tumultuous minority government, Rhodri Morgan (who had succeeded Michael in February 2000) reluctantly agreed a coalition with the Lib Dems in order to provide some stability. Over the next 2½ years, the administration was able to carry out a number of policies that demonstrated its commitment to traditional Labour values and its determination to address the needs of the working class and the poor in Wales.

These included a health policy based on prevention, not cure, a firm commitment to comprehensive education and a poverty-alleviation programme called ‘Communities First’. In addition, a number of services were made free at the point of use, such as bus travel for pensioners and the disabled and access to museums and galleries.

All this paid off in the 2003 election, which saw Labour win back key constituencies from Plaid, giving the Party exactly half of the Assembly’s sixty seats. With the nonvoting position of Presiding Officer being retained by Plaid Cymru, the administration held an effective majority of one.

In April 2005, however, this changed when Labour backbencher Peter Law decided to stand as an independent candidate in the Westminster general election,

prompting his expulsion by Labour and an adjustment of the arithmetic in favour of the opposition. Law died in May of this year but his Blaenau Gwent Assembly seat was retained by his widow in the subsequent by-election, with a comfortable majority over the Labour candidate. It seems unlikely that Labour will win back Blaenau Gwent in May – or, indeed, Wrexham, which was retained by John Marek as an independent in 2003, after he was de-selected as the Labour candidate.

Labour is already over-represented in relation to its vote in the forty constituency seats elected by first-past-the-post and this means that it is unlikely to qualify for more than one of the additional twenty ‘top-up’ seats allocated on a proportional basis. Speculation as to the outcome of the election is already rife in the Welsh media. One pundit recently predicted that Labour would win even fewer seats than in 1999, and that the most likely result would be another Lib-Lab coalition, this time under Environment Minister, Carwyn Jones. An alternative – nightmarish – scenario would be a coalition of all the current opposition parties (although the more left-wing members of Plaid Cymru would probably balk at joining the Tories in Government). It would certainly be a bitter irony if Welsh Labour were to suffer at the polls as a result of policies carried out by the New Labour Government in Westminster, many of which have been opposed (if only Labour ministers. A change of leadership in London in time for the Assembly election could only boost Rhodri’s chances of winning a further term in office.

An additional problem, however, has been the hostility or lack of interest of the media towards Welsh Labour’s progressive agenda. In view of this, the Party in Wales needs to make greater efforts to spread the word about its own policies – as opposed to those of its ‘big brother’ in Westminster – reminding voters of its commitment to equality and decent public services. Turn-out will be crucial: in 1999 it was only 46% and in 2003, 38%.

In order to persuade Labour supporters to come out and vote, it will be essential to energise activists. In the past, Welsh Labour has relied too heavily on a ‘topdown’ approach, allowing activists too little say. Part of the reason for the establishment of the centre-left network, Welsh Labour Grassroots, in 2003 was to campaign for a democratisation and opening-up of the Party – both as an end in itself, and as the best way to safeguard the future of the Welsh party’s progressive reform agenda.

The British Labour leadership – under Brown or any other likely successor to Blair – may well decide in the future to challenge Welsh Labour’s unorthodox policy inclinations. If that happens, the active, informed support of rank-and-file members will be needed to defend Welsh Labour’s achievements. Building a strong grassroots-focused election campaign is therefore vital, not just to get the best result for the party in May, but also to help prepare socialist activists for the battles that lie ahead.